Housing market dynamics of the post-Sandy Hudson estuary, Long Island Sound, and New Jersey coastline are explained by NFIP participation

Abstract How flooding affects home values can determine the path of economic recovery for communities and have lasting impacts on national global financial systems. Yet, our understanding how flood insurance, community risk perception, past events shape future housing prices (HPs) remains limited. To explore this, we used a socio-environmental (SE) model studied temporal mean across 496 coastal census tracts New York, Connecticut, Jersey, US, from 1970 to 2021. The modeling exercise demonstrated that initial impact Hurricane Sandy was largely absorbed by National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP); however, region then exhibited long-term decline in values, which well described an interrupted time series model. We found significant correlations between SE parameters describing HP change those tract-scale behaviors perceptions, suggesting salience NFIP participation may be important regional drivers HPs. Tracts with greater post-flood active insurance policies larger decreases than more stable participation. An improved relationships HPs, perceptions could support equitable distributions resources policy interventions reduce risk.